But given the low historical level of rates and the fiscal challenges looming as baby boomers retire, investors who buy long bonds at a recent 4.5% may not be getting compensated for all the risks they face.“Bond traders never think about having to hold onto a 30-year Treasury for 30 years,” Seiver said. “But an awful lot is going to happen between now and then.”
Full story here. Emphasis mine. My Christmas bonus this year went straight into paying off credit card debt. Clearing the decks, as it were. But if I had spare cash to invest someplace, I sure wouldn’t be buying long-term Treasuries.
Also note this cheery speculation:
Could the next black/green/dark gray swan be so obvious that it has avoided everyone? Well, except for the deputy governor of the Bank of China, who just gave the world a startling reminder of economics 101, when he said that it is “getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US’s shrinking current-account gap is reducing the supply of dollars overseas.” Oops.