Okay, I made my predictions on the VP choices yesterday. Here’s where I hedge my bet with The Inside Stuff (TM) that has been percolating along in my clippings file for the last four years.
Back in 2004, McCain’s right-hand man John Weaver was spotted in a lunch meeting with Karl Rove. Washington, DC was instantly atwitter. The two had been mortal enemies since Rove orchestrated the successful hit pieces that sunk McCain in the South in 2000. What, pray tell, could be up?
The rumor seemed to be that McCain had sold his soul agreed to do a 180 and become the President’s Most Loyal Supporter, and certainly during the 2004 campaign he did, with full-throated statements about how the GWOT was the defining challenge of our times, etc., etc. The thought was that he did this in exchange for access to Bush’s donor lists and contacts, and presumed behind-the-scenes backing by the Bush White House in 2008.
Why would Bush do this? I’ve long held that Bush truly believes in the transcendent nature of the GWOT, and has put all else below it in his calculations. That’s why Harriet Miers was nominated — she could have ensured a safe vote for the President in the Guantanamo cases that were making their way to the Supreme Court. Whatever you think of him, compared to Harriet, Alito was a risk. Bush knew how Harriet would vote if she made it to the bench. In war, nothing’s better than certainty. And so it is with McCain. Bush is leaving office with unfinished business, and he wants whoever succeeds him to continue the GWOT to its conclusion.
Fast-forward to 2008 and McCain’s come-from-behind, slow-and-steady- wins-the-race nomination victory. What could Rove have exacted from McCain in exchange for an assist? Well, Bush man Rob Portman’s consistently been talked about as VP material — in fact, Bush has stated he’d like Portman as McCain’s VP. Can’t get much less subtle than that.
McCain needs Ohio to win. Portman’s from Ohio. He had an A rating from the NRA when he was in Congress, so that’s fine with me. And he has all the right people pushing for him.
Still, there was always the same insider buzz about Bill Bradley (left), and I always thought people pushing him were smoking something, or just overly impressed by his physical presence. On TV, he was horrible.
So although, despite flirtations with the ridiculous (Frist) and the not-so-ridiculous (Romney), I do believe McCain was the Bush Administration’s preferred successor at least as far back as 2004, and they are pushing hard for their boy Rob. But on balance I think McCain will need someone flashier, and someone not connected to the Bush Administration, either. So I’m gonna say the talk about Portman is wishful thinking by Washington insiders who don’t want to see all their precious contacts vanish, and are looking to Portman to be their link with the new administration. McCain, if he’s realistic, will see he needs somebody with more national presence than Portman. Thus, I say he’s going with Giuliani.
But of course, I could be very wrong.