Gene Hoffman on what’s facing California gun owners:
Keep Calm and Carry On
All,There is quite a bit of fear in our community. It was a completely justified reaction to the unleashing of gun prohibitionist forces after Newtown. However, it’s time to take a deep breath, step back, and realize that, though we have our work cut out for us, we can prevail and continue the march toward more civil rights.
Federal:
The Federal AWB reinstatement is almost completely dead. Too many Democratic Senators stand for election in pro gun states in 2014. What’s left will have little direct impact on we Californians but that doesn’t mean we don’t care. Magazine capacity restrictions still have some potential, but it seems that even Biden is distancing himself from that proposal, again due to the 2014 issues and the interplay that even if something passes the Senate, it’s unlikely to pass the House making it only politically costly for Dems or moderate unfaithful Reeps with 0 to gain. The strongest push will be for universal background checks. Even should that happen, we’re already living under that [in California]. However, it will still be very hard to get that through the House.
State:
One critical difference in California is that the executive is not pushing new gun control like e.g. Governor Cuomo did in New York. California’s bills are going to run at usual speed and in a few months we’ll start to get a feel for which ones will have no support and which ones are serious proposals. There remains skepticism about ammo restrictions at senior levels and those run into commerce related problems. Also, the complexion of this years legislative run hasn’t fully been set. CGF has a couple of initiatives it plans to place into the mix. We will have real work to do to hold the line in California, but that real work is something this community has done before and we are not without allies and support (sometimes from places that many here find suspect.)
Courts:
We will take some silly losses simply because we deign to ask gun prohibitionist judges to faithfully apply the Bill of Rights. The Schrader case is one of those already and is direct fall out from Newtown. However, I am confident that Kachalshy (NY carry) has very good chances of being granted cert by SCOTUS in April to be argued early in their next term (which would be October – December 2013.) We appear to remain on track for a decision on may issue carry from the Supremes by July 1, 2014.
New York State overplayed their hand by limiting magazines to 7 rounds. We may not win that issue in lower courts, but as we go up, the courts get more honest about applying Heller. Banning Heller’s own 9 shot revolver from Heller and most every semiautomatic handgun in commerce is the kind of over reach we can capitalize on nationally.
Additionally, this wake up call has forged new alliances, brought the forces that want to defend the Bill of Rights together for the betterment of all civil rights, and created new allies. The threats by certain states to sue should these sorts of infringements be passed at the Federal level are real and courts give even greater deference to states under federalism.
So, don’t panic. Do call, write, keep informed. Do talk to your friends who are ignorant on these issues and de-escalate their fear while informing them as politely as possible. Get ready to apply the pressure we’ll need to apply once CA bill season really gets underway.
Often the other side makes one last over-reach. This might be it. We need to calmly prepare to push very hard as the time continues to shift the balance back to civil rights and away from hysteria.
-Gene
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Gene Hoffman
Chairman, The Calguns Foundation
Brackets mine, for clarity.
Gene at the Commonwealth Club debate:
His point about Martin Luther King’s bodyguards in the clip below is an excellent one for an audience of leftists of a certain age.
Here’s Gene on CBS News shortly after Newtown.