And no one on the left will link to it. They’re all convinced that Iran had little if nothing to do with Basra and that Maliki was the aggressor in the situation.
A gamble that proved too costly.
That’s how analysts in Tehran describe events last month in Basra. Iran’s state-run media have de facto confirmed that this was no spontaneous “uprising.” Rather, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) tried to seize control of Iraq’s second-largest city using local Shiite militias as a Trojan horse.
Tehran’s decision to make the gamble was based on three assumptions:
* Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki wouldn’t have the courage to defend Basra at the risk of burning his bridges with the Islamic Republic in Iran.
* The international force would be in no position to intervene in the Basra battle. The British, who controlled Basra until last December, had no desire to return, especially if this meant getting involved in fighting. The Americans, meanwhile, never had enough troops to finish off al-Qaeda-in-Iraq, let alone fight Iran and its local militias on a new front.
* The Shiite clerical leadership in Najaf would oppose intervention by the new Iraqi security forces in a battle that could lead to heavy Shiite casualties.
The Iranian plan – developed by Revolutionary Guard’s Quds (Jerusalem) unit, which is in charge of “exporting the Islamic Revolution” – aimed at a quick victory. To achieve that, Tehran spent vast sums persuading local Iraqi security personnel to switch sides or to remain neutral.
The hoped-for victory was to be achieved as part of a massive Shiite uprising spreading from Baghdad to the south via heartland cities such as Karbala, Kut and al-Amarah. A barrage of rockets and missiles against the “Green Zone” in Baghdad and armed attacks on a dozen police stations and Iraqi army barracks in the Shiite heartland were designed to keep the Maliki government under pressure.
To seize control of Basra, Quds commanders used units known as Special Groups. These consist of individuals recruited from among the estimated 1.8 million Iraqi refugees who spent more than two decades in Iran during Saddam Hussein’s reign. They returned to Iraq shortly after Saddam’s fall and started to act as liaisons between Quds and local Shiite militias.
In last month’s operation, Quds commanders used the name and insignia of the Mahdi Army, a militia originally created by the maverick cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, as a cover for the Special Groups.
RTWT
Nice find!
I think it could be more double-speak from Iran.
They probably WERE behind the Basra attempt, but now are trying to get pressure off of Mookie and his hard boyz by saying it was really the fault of their intermediaries.
This is not aimed at the US, it is for internal consumption of the battling sect of Shia within Iraq. It might work, but I’m-a-dingaling is hanging it all out here, essentially daring the USA to attack Iran for an admitted armed meddling in Iraq’s internal affairs.
We won’t take his bait, because we can’t, militarily.
Iran knows that, so it is free to pursue these Shia-on-Shia matters across the border of the two states.
Rivrdog:
I think an insane disproportionate response would work wonders here. Something on the order of making the rubble bounce.
What won’t work is a measured military response.
I am 62 and have watched us do dumb things for ever and as Riverdog says, a measured response won’t work. Agreed. Unfortunately I don’t believe that bush will do a massive conventional strike, sure wish he would. Rubble looks so much better then what is in iran at present.
On the other hands, if the dims get in it will be a massive suck up and make nice campaign, sell Israel down the tubes for a promise to make nice by iran and other muslims, which of course won’t be worth the paper it is written on.
I’m not 62, I’m not even 26 yet… but in my simplistic view, any attack by USA on Iran soil would be seen as an opportunity for Iran. I’d wager that the wavering political will in Washington D.C. would allow Iran to gain some territory against a weakened Iraq. Furthermore I’d wager that Iran would have nukes even sooner than the current diplomatic efforts would allow.
John,
An attack on iran by the US would not benifit iran in dealing with Iraq in my view. They would be missing a bunch of their toys.
How do you figure that it would help iran against Iraq? Of course, obama could come to the aid of iran if he is elected president. He would do that in my view, no mater what.
No matter what we do, Iraq is getting training by the US that will stand them in good stead for a long time to come. Their military will be superior to the iranians and will prove to be a problem if the iranians choose to go after iraq. Sadr is getting a taste of this right now. I am sure it is not making his day. Oh well, life is tough in that part of the world.
To say that the Iraqis have all their problems solved is to put ones head in the sand. They are part of a culture that has been as it is for centuries and won’t do a 180 degree turn around because we are there, but they can do, say 90 or 110 degree turn around. Not a bad situation for them, considering their competitors are still in the dark ages.
As to irans nukes, bet they have them by 09, wanna bet? The fact that the west, head in sand, believes all the UN and the intel from our own supposed intel community, I say their is somebody in the woodshed shoveling BS out the door. iran, if it doesn’t have nukes already, will shortly. If they are stupid enough to hit Israel, they will cease to exist. Israel, I will bet, has planned for this and will remove the iranians from the map. It has not happened to them ever in all the centuries they have existed and they can’t imagine it happening to them now. Oh well, life is tough, and when you error in this sort of stuff, it is not something one may recover from.
I don’t count on bush or the US dealing with iran, we did not deal with the communist in vietnam and we lack the will to deal with iran effectively so best we don’t go there.
Be really neat if we actually, as a country, could field competent leadership, but people keep voting for free money and this insures really poor leaders. We will all wake up after it is way to late. Life is tough and then you die from rad poisoning.
S&B